So here's my updated civilization cradles and spread maps.
CIVB (3NOV15).jpg
AGRI SPREAD (4NOV15).jpg
Again: the dates are approximate start dates of the civilization cradles, but the area represented in colors it's its final before collapsing and leaving behind cultural inheritors.
Hi Pixie, I love your idea. I tried to represent it in the map (CIV C), with a start date of around 4.500 OT. Problem is, 4.500 O.T. is a long way from the time the story takes place, where the Empire is already like 650 years old in the New Time, so that 4.500 O.T. civ is a bit old to be its direct ancestor.
What I see happening is what you said, then that 4.500 O.T. civ collapsed but another one arose later a bit up north-east (CIV E), heavily influence by the collapsed one, the previous centuries. But, eventually E civ also collapsed, and around 1.800 O.T. a new one arose between those 2 rivers where the original agriculture spread waves met, and that 1.800 O.T. is the direct cultural ancestor of the Empire. I don't know how to represent the 1.800 civ into the map along since the area is occupied by 4.500 already.
But yes, the 4.500 O.T. civ you gave birth to will have been the ancestor of the 1.800 one in the end.
Perhaps that 4.500 O.T. civ should be a bit older, since by the year 5k each wave (blue and red) are situated near the river where they'll clash first, perhaps that civ could have arisen from the conflict with blue by 4.800 O.T. I'd even say by 4.500 O.T. blue would have already lost the battle an expand north-west.
Yes Durakken, you're right about a slight discontinuity after the isthmus. I've moved the isthmus' new center a bit to the north, right after the isthmus elevation range ends when it touches the 5.000 O.T. wave line. The reasoning is that the funnel effect of the elevation range gets people on the area above it roughly by 5.000, with the end of the isthmus forming a new spread direction. It's still a non-exact guess.
However, I don't think it'd take till 2250 OT to get to the Isthmus and beyond from the west.
First, since the model is based on migrations mostly motivated by excesses of population, I think we have to suppose an exponential kind of demographic growth, so I don't think with the model people are just on the center of the wave each time, then expand to the sides, then expand to the next wave. I understand there's people pushing along the whole wave to begin with if the terrain allows it.
Second, on Acelor (the west-south quarter of the continent), there's most likely to be a huge desert area on the mid to north area, channeling migrations to the coastal areas, creating a funnel effect that will speed the expansion to the west a bit, but since I still can't know for sure where exactly and how big the desert will be, for now I can't work that out in the map.
So in the end, I think in fact that migrations from the north-west side of the epicenter (A) will reach the isthmus even earlier than predicted by the model, perhaps by 1-2k years, while those expanding trough the southern coast of Acelor will take a bit longer to get to the west because first they have to travel south trough the Nile like river area. In fact, the spread from the southern coast should probably have a new focus/direction of spread with a slower chronology.
This major change once I get the desert on place will probably throw off Pixie's idea since blue would get to the area much sooner than red and spread farming. There would still be conflict with red as different cultural groups, but it'll be in the area close to the bottleneck of the inner sea.
In fact, then I think I'll have civ E be the older there, originated from blue, then red came and couldn't at first displace E, but did push blue culture south of it down back to the isthmus, then grew its own civ there (civ C) as a result of that long-term conflict. So E and C will be independent and rivaling until one of them collapsed first, most likely the oldest one, E.
Sigh, it's clear the model works best when you already know your terrain and for areas with a uniform spread direction, otherwise I'm afraid you have to create a new wave focus each time there's a major change in the orientation of the migrations, which make things messy, but I reckon interesting, conflict! I still think the model it's useful to get started and get a general idea of the spread chronology.