I wanted to participate in the actual monthly challenge but ended up doing something else and life caught in the way. So I will post something else here. It is related by maybe I will repost in a new thread. I have been wanting to do this for some time. There are maps made to show the climates of the future but it's not really easy to understand what the changes are exactly, and where they occur. I did a couple of maps to try to better display the magnitude of the changes.
Summary: compare the climates from 2000 to 2100
First I took the data from here: http://koeppen-geiger.vu-wien.ac.at/shifts.htm
I modified the image and used the basic maps mostly.
Secondly, I chose the A1fi scenario because it seems to be the most plausible (but also a pretty pessimistic one).
This scenario predicts and increase of temperature of 4 degrees by the end of the century. Only the most optimistic ecologists believe we can still avoid passing over the 2 degrees mark, and that can only work if we adopt aggressive measures to curb down gas emission. But we are barely doing anything.
Thirdly I started this:
2000 wip.jpg
Only to find out that I did not really have sufficient data to make the 2100 map. I mean, I needed to know what area remained the same and which one would need to be changed.
I redid the maps in photoshop, maybe not the best way to do it but whatever
Climates 2000.png
Climates 2100.png
Right now, it's still just a bunch of weird colours.
This map shows the change of climate according to the categories of the Koppen classification following this table where each arrow represent a change of one category:
temp change cat.png
This is very useful for my project but probably not so much for most people. A map showing the change in Celsius would be more useful but that is not what I needed.
It also show where the tundra will disappear and where the glaciers will melt (although the process can take decades if not centuries).
The grey areas represent deserts, steppes and places where the aridity is changing. I cannot include it because everything that has to do with arid climates uses different temperatures thresholds compared to the other climates categories. Anyway the relevant data is better left for another map because there would be too many colours.
temp cat change.png
Here I looked at the changes in aridity. It only show the changes if it changes the category of the climate. So for instance, most of Southern Europe will become drier but not enough to become a steppe. Therefore the change is not displayed on this map because it is too small.
Also I need to remind that aridity is define as either an increase of temperature, reduction of precipitation or both at the same time resulting in an increased aridity.
aridity change.png
I made it so there is one colour for the deserts and one colour for the steppes.
The outlook is bad overall.
Most of the red areas are tundra in the Andes turning into deserts which might not be that dramatic considering the area is already one of the driest on the planet. With this classification, tundra can be dry or humid, only the temperatures matter.
Rain pattern or seasonality:
I included the usual three patterns plus a moderately dry winter season for the Am climate.
rain pattern 2000.png
rain pattern 2100.png
Changes between the 2 periods:
pluviometry changes.png
The dark green means that precipitation tend to be more evenly spread out during the year and so they now lack a proper dry season. That doesn't mean an increase of precipitation, just that they are spread differently.
London will be able to grow palm trees with a climate similar to today's Marseilles.
Lastly, the evolution of ice shelves at their maximum and minimum using different sources.
Minimum:
ice min.png
Maximum:
ice max.png
The changes during the hot season is huge. Only the coldest bays around some parts of Antarctica will be cold enough to sustain the shelve in the south.
In the north, there is a small patch of ice survining just north of Greenland but the ice will be very thin, so I chose not to include it.
The ice cover is still significant in winter but is made of young ice (1-2 years old max) and is relatively thin.
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