1 does seem the logical point to put the original settlement. It's a prime position and probably the most defendable around the lake. However I do feel that the main road is more likely to approach from the south rather than the east - why build a bridge if you don't need to? Although wooden bridges were often burned to prevent the enemy from getting too close.

Cities don't tend to spread out from a river on both sides. If they do they will be separate cities at first. So I'm thinking that the original, ancient 'old town' area in 1 would be followed by district 14, and the hills to the east of this would be fortified, perhaps with a watchtower atop. It's also highly likely that if the area was settled during a period that we'd call neolithic to bronze age, that the hills would also be used as burial grounds. They would be placed higher up for important people so that wherever people were they'd see their ancestors.

At the same time as 1 being settled, I'd imagine that other settlements would grow up around the other water sources. The surrounding areas would probably have been used for agriculture. There is a theory that modern humans stopped being hunter gatherers and started farming not to make grain for flour for bread, which is the established theory, but to make malt for brewing beer. This drive for beer and a recognition that humans can produce more than they consume, led to certain enterprising individuals to take control of the resources so that they could profit and become more powerful. In any case, beer and bread both require water, so the areas around the water would be fiercely contested, and just as fiercely defended. Alliances and agreements would establish, larger numbers of people would settle the area, meaning more land required for food (and beer), meaning encroaching on each other's land. Eventually one leader would win out and decide to keep everything safe a wall is required. Then places would spring up outside of the wall, with perhaps trading posts at points along the major roads. There would have to be sufficient threat from outside that would require a guard, and thus a method to extract taxes from the population, which was just a shorter way of saying 'protection money' back then.


That's just how I imagine it would evolve anyway.